Russias threat to Europe.

Russian Tupolev TU-95 followed closely by a RAF Typhoon

In the past weeks, the saga of Ukraine and Russia has been eerily quiet, as if a bubble is about to bust in the post Soviet Republic. We wait to write our posts as the news from Ukraine is always changing, and today was no exception. On November 1st, 2014, the Royal Air Force detected a Russian Bear Bomber over the North Sea, which was the second flypast in three days according to the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense. The Aircraft was a Tupolev Tu-95, still adorning a Red Star/Soviet Livery. Russia’s assault on Europe is not only limited to the air. On October 16th, 2014, two Norwegian Scientists on an Arctic Ice flow spotted lights far in the distance, as they were on an ice flow, this was very unusual. The pair investigated and before them lay a Nuclear Submarine, the two decided to approach it further, but the vessel sank back below the water when they came within 300 feet of her. Although they were unable to determine any identifying factors, they did capture several photographs. She has features that indicate that she is a Delta Class submarine from Orenburg. The presence of a Russian sub in the Arctic is only relevant due to a sighting in Stockholm, Sweden a week prior. Although no military action has come of these encounters, it is relevant to mention them as it is a rise in activity in regions where Russia has historically been nonexistent.

In more recent news, the European Union has condemned elections held by Pro Russian Separatists by calling them “Illegal and illegitimate.” Alexander Zakharchenko is the Prime Minister of the self appointed government in the Donetsk Region. This region is the same in which the Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down. Zakharchenko has apparently received 70% of the vote, while his party is also winning Parliamentary positions. "I consider today's 'presidential and parliamentary' elections in Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics' a new obstacle on the path towards peace in Ukraine. The vote is illegal and illegitimate, and the European Union will not recognize it." - Federica Mogherini - EU foreign Policy Chief. It is of course suspected by the EU that the diplomacy of the elections is questionable, therefore it comes as no surprise that the Russian Foreign Ministry has stated that Russia "respects the will of the people of southeast Ukraine.” This can be the preface for Russian invasion and annexation. Since a somewhat legitimate election was held therefore Russia has that “legitimacy” to use as reasoning. This also follows the never ending anti-terror campaign that has been going on for months and months. The public was informed on a number of occasions that order would soon be restored and Ukraine would take back control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. But order was never restored, supplies have been coming in for the rebels so the question we asked in a previous post, who is supplying the rebels. All fingers point at Russia, even today there was a video that shows fresh new military trucks entering the city of Donetsk. It may be a sign of what is to come, as these actions are similar to those in Crimea. Along with the increased air force presence across Europe, Russia could most likely be flexing its muscles before it can show the world what it can do by annexing a part of Ukraine.

Russian Aircraft engagements over the past week.

This also may have to do with the threat of ISIS, the threat of Islamist Extremists is fairly close to Russia’s most southern border. With the rapid movement of ISIS in Iraq and Syria the threat is real. It’s in Russia’s interests to assert its influence in the region. If Europe were to fall, Russia would love to take over chunks of land across Europe. Yes this may seem silly, but historically Empires from the Middle East, like the Ottoman Empire have controlled large swathes of Europe. In todays world one needs to be ready for anything. Who knows, the tide might turn and something of that nature might happen again. ISIS can very well spread and take over parts of Europe the way the Ottoman Empire did. It seems very surreal and it’s not likely to happen but Russia is taking everything into consideration. Russia is preparing itself if need be, to take advantage of any countries that appear vulnerable. This is an example that we can see with Ukraine, Russia stepped in when Ukraine was most vulnerable, the country was going through a transition after President Yanukovych was removed from power. If parts of Europe were to become destabilized it would be without a doubt that Russia would look to step in whether it be economically, politically, or with its military. Who knows, by tomorrow there may be war between Russia and Ukraine.

Sources:

1. Reuters. "Nato Jets Track 'unusual' Russian Bomber Sorties." Telegraph.co.uk, 30 Oct. 2014. Web.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11197145/Nato-jets-track-unusual-Russian-bomber-sorties.html

2. Kefford, Ali. "Mystery Submarine Sighting Gives Clue to Russia's Arctic Ambitions." The Telegraph. Telegraph Media Group, 14 July 0028. Web. 03 Nov. 2014.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11191777/Mystery-submarine-sighting-gives-clue-to-Russias-Arctic-ambitions.html

3. AFP, Telegraph Video and. "Swedish Submarine Hunt: On Patrol in the Stockholm Archipelago." The Telegraph. Telegraph Media Group, 21 Oct. 2014. Web. 03 Nov. 2014.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/sweden/11177901/Swedish-submarine-hunt-on-patrol-in-the-Stockholm-archipelago.html

4. "EU: Ukraine Elections an Obstacle to Peace | News | DW.DE | 03.11.2014."DW.DE. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Nov. 2014.
http://www.dw.de/eu-ukraine-elections-an-obstacle-to-peace/a-18035617

5. "NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russian Air Activity in Europe." NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russian Air Activity in Europe. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Nov. 2014.
http://www.aco.nato.int/nato-tracks-largescale-russian-air-activity-in-europe.aspx