In Colombia, the talks may continue, but will the commitments?

Since the fifties, conflict between the Colombian government and the FARC has been the most volatile political struggle in Colombia. This armed conflict between the leftist rebel group and the government has taken an estimated 220,000 lives since it began in 1948. The current round of peace talks, held in Havana, Cuba, have been ongoing for the past two years. Happily, some relative progress has been on their agenda. They have reached agreements on three of their six peace points: land reform, political participation, and policies regarding illicit drugs. Yet still waiting for negotiation are the other three critical issues of the rights of victims, disarmament, and implementation of the final treaty.

On November 18, this process was interrupted by the announcement that FARC had captured General Ruben Dario Alzate and two soldiers. This was perhaps a response to the Colombian government’s ongoing dominance in the political sphere, despite that negotiations are intended to place the two actors in mutual dialogue. This is the first time in the history of the conflict that a Colombian general has been kidnapped. The FARC rejects many criticisms against this decision, maintaining that these kidnappings are “a legitimate act of war”. Unsurprisingly, FARC’s actions have prompted the government to end this round of peace talks, insisting they can only continue when the prisoners have been released.

On Monday, President Juan Manuel Santos (left) stated that “We must be clear: although we are currently negotiating in the middle of a conflict, the FARC have to understand that peace will not come from escalating violent actions and undermining trust”. Yet despite that this opinion dominates much of Colombian discourse about the conflict, reactions among Colombian senators have been versatile. There is, on one hand,  the idea that talks cannot resume until both sides have agreed on the cross party call for a ceasefire. Still others such as Carlos Lozano of NGO “Colombians for Peace” argue that the peace talks must continue because the government has agreed to follow through on the negotiations in light of the possibility of ongoing violence.

If we situate this debate in a more theoretical context, we are presented with a serious question on the legitimate use of force. If the state cannot ensure peace among its subjects, or if as some argue its oppression necessitates the use of rebellious violence, is the scope of its power justifiable? One response can be found in Max Weber’s definition of a state as a “… human community that successfully claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory”. In the case of the Colombian state, they are attempting to maintain the “legitimacy” of their physical force to assert their power over the FARC rebels. At the same time in the recent talks, the state has continued to insist that they lack a monopoly on violence, given the FARCs ongoing use of force in politics. This question has woven itself through many decades of this conflict, but as we can see, the paradox of attempting to establish a stable peace by struggling over the use of force fails to provide any true progress.

So turning to the alternatives at hand, what could a ceasefire or a renewal of the peace talks mean for Colombians? One possibility is that a stable agreement on one of the peace points, such as drug trafficking, could diminish the peripheral violence outside of the central military struggle. The FARC obtains most of its income from cocaine, which generates violence at multiple stages of trade. Had the peace talk proposals been implemented, there could have been alternative means of creating revenues that would both empower FARC and vastly improve the security situation for Colombian civilians. Without peace talks conditioned to ensure that FARC feels it has a serious interest however, there may be pauses in the formal conflict, but the violence of other aspects of the power struggle would continue.

Another consideration is that Colombia has experienced economic growth at a rate of 4% of GDP annually in the past decade. If the peace talks continue, these gains and stable peace could serve to "… strengthen formal employment, hasten poverty reduction, and improve quality of life" (Buschschluter, 2014). And whether or not the talks continue, the Colombian government must seriously undertake the actual process of decreasing unemployment, etc., for a genuinely inclusive post-conflict society. Such efforts must go beyond the printed words on a peace treaty or government statements to the media. This pause created by the FARC action shows us that the rebels are dissatisfied by the alleged progress so far, and that both sides must consider if the mutually stabilizing future intended by the peace process is compatible with their real willingness to compromise.

The complex interplay of the responsibilities of ending violence while also establishing a post-conflict power map that favors all goals of development and integration provides us with a look into the tensions that have driven the FARC to take hostages. Given the ugly history of killing in this conflict, this momentary arrest of persons and national attention may be worth the stakes if they can lead to a way forward in which both sides can take each other’s grievances and demands seriously.

AFP. (2014, November 22). FARC to free Colombian general, others next week: President. Retrieved November 23, 2014, from http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-farc-to-free-colombian-general-others-next-week-president-2014-11

Buschschluter, V. (2014, October 30). The price of peace in Colombia. Retrieved November 23, 2014, from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29693391

Colombia general 'released soon' (2014, November 19). Retrieved November 23, 2014, from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-30124727

FARC confirms capture of Colombian general. (2014, November 19). Retrieved November 23, 2014, from http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2014/11/farc-confirms-capture-colombian-general-201411181691199135.html

Mckenzie, V. (2014, November 19). Colombia divided over peace talks suspension - Colombia News | Colombia Reports. Retrieved November 23, 2014, from http://colombiareports.co/kidnapping/

Valdés, R., & Murphy, H. (2014, November 18). FARC Urges Continuation To Peace Talks After Confirming Army General's Kidnapping. Retrieved November 23, 2014, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/18/colombia-peace-talks-suspended-_n_6178784.html

#Colombia&Peace

Superseding Sovereignty: Bilateral Cooperation on Emissions & the LIEO

Although a relatively small conservative bastion in the United States refutes climate change, the majority of the developed world has come to terms with the crippling strain that industrial development has placed on the world’s environment. Within the global economic order, two “super polluters” lay claim to the majority of the world’s pollution: China and the US. Following the environmental movements of the 1970’s and more recent ‘green’ push, the collective American conscious has become aware of this distinction, yet China is a relative newcomer to this group. Only in 2007 did China become the world’s largest contributor of greenhouse emissions and until recently, China seemed indifferent to its catastrophic effects on the climate and environment, citing the many more decades that already developed nations have had since the beginning of their Industrial Revolutions to build their nation’s economy without concern for the environment. Countries in the process of developing –China argues, deserve at least a similar amount of time to catch up. On November 12, 2014 this view was at least partially reversed, as the United States and China signed a revolutionary climate deal that would aim to substantially cut each nation’s contribution of fossil fuel emissions throughout the next three decades.

China is known more for it’s progressive and consistent economic growth than its regard for human rights and with its increase in GDP also comes a measure of environmental degradation. The public health and the well-being of Chinese citizens have been put at stake due to moderate consideration for human rights and a clean environment. Now–because of air pollution and the extensive contamination of navigable and groundwater alike–the safety of Chinese citizens has been put in serious jeopardy. Life expectancy in China has decreased and so has the value of the land. These effects are starting to take their toll on China’s economic growth however, as this decline in health and destruction of natural capital has cost the country roughly 9 percent of its annual gross national income.

Together the United States and China are responsible for 40% of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The recent reduction agreement signed by both US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping came as a great shock due to the fact that although not far reaching, this act sets a standard for future cooperation between their two nations and other developing countries. Specifically, the agreement “states that the US would reduce its emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels, by 2025.”  Likewise, “China has agreed not only to cap emissions by 2030, but to produce 20 percent of its energy using non-fossil fuels by the same year.”

The agreement between the US and China does not mean that China will be reducing its current emissions in the same way that the US is. China has instead agreed to not exceed its projected peak amounts of emissions by 2030. Although taking global action on the environment and working to lower emissions seems initially out of line with the PRC’s longstanding goal of increased economic prosperity, these reforms are seen to be beneficial to China’s economy. The primary impact will be in the promotion of alternative energy sources by increasing the price of carbon emission. Certainly, the transition won’t be easy. What is being called for is no less than the complete transition of what has been primarily for the last century a carbon based economy. As with all major economic reorderings, there will be winners–firms on the cutting edge of defossilization–and losers–primarily oil producing states and the now petroleum dominated energy sector. 

What is not so clear is how each country plans to implement such drastic cuts in emissions. As one might imagine, such a lofty goal is easier said than done. In the US, this will most certainly require some Congressional action as well as sweeping action by the President. Given this month’s elections, it is doubtful whether a Republican controlled congress will have much interest in the legislation necessary to achieve this feat. As for China, the state will have to take considerable action in divesting the emissions-heavy sectors of their economy as well as abating their large population’s newfound taste for consumer goods. China’s authoritarian government will no doubt have better luck in implementing these reforms than America’s currently divisive political regime.

This monumental climate agreement bridges a fundamental ideological divide between China’s centrally planned economy and America’s professed liberal policies. The aim of such a pact flies right in the face of the many neoliberal ideals which have long reigned supreme in the liberal international economic order. Diplomatically, it demonstrates a far reaching and audacious intervention by the state into the affairs of the economy. The deal also illustrates our contemporary ideas of sovereignty and how it is sometimes superseded by these global concerns. Earth can take a lot of abuse and has the ability to recover itself through geological processes but does so at a much slower rate than what humans are currently dishing out.   

#ChinaInTheWorld

Miles Bierylo, Corey Norell, Luca Difronzo, Sophie DeSantis, Kevin H., & Imani S.

Works Cited

Shorts, D. (2014, November 19). Climate pact with China shows leadership. Retrieved from http://thetandd.com/news/opinion/climate-pact-with-china-shows-leadership/article_80718862-6faa-11e4-80d2-f73b5c2cb70b.html

Seligsohn, D., Heilmayr, R., Tan, X., & Weischer, L. (2009, October 1). China, the United States, and the Climate Change Challenge. Retrieved from http://www.wri.org/publication/china-united-states-and-climate-change-challenge

Chun, Y., & Xiaochun, M. (Eds.). (20, November 19). Sino-US climate change deal may shift agenda for developing states - People's Daily Online. Retrieved from http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/n/2014/1119/c90883-8810896.html

FACT SHEET: U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change and Clean Energy Cooperation. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/fact-sheet-us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change-and-clean-energy-c

Xu, B. (2014, April 25). China's Environmental Crisis. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/china/chinas-environmental-crisis/p12608

Zuckerman, J. (2014, November 18). The Other Good News in the U.S.-China Climate Announcement (it's the economy, stupid!). Retrieved from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/julia-zuckerman/the-other-good-news-in-th_b_6178872.html

Paquette, D. (2014, November 12). The U.S. and China just agreed to a historic climate deal. Here’s how it could affect you. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/storyline/wp/2014/11/12/how-will-the-energy-agreement-with-china-affect-you/

Levi, M. (2014, November 12). Why the U.S.-China climate agreement is a big deal. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/12/did-the-u-s-and-china-just-agree-to-save-the-world/

United Nations Environment Programme. (1972, June 16). Retrieved from http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?documentid=97&articleid=1503

ISIS's Triple Threat: Fear, Extortion, and Brainwashing

Propaganda:

Photo taken from "Flames of War" propaganda video

Dramatic music, preaching, executions, and explosions. These are the hallmarks of almost every ISIS propaganda video. One of the most dramatic and shocking videos “Flames of War,” released by ISIS in September, exemplifies these pieces of imagery. There are slow motion explosions from attacks against US forces, images of wounded US troops, and US troops being surrounded by flames that engulf the screen. It’s an all too familiar production, with many similar videos having been made and circulated on the Internet. “Flames of War” looks almost like a movie trailer, especially with the final words across the screen: “coming soon.” It suggests a declaration of war against the United States in a very dramatic way. It can be seen that ISIS wants to send a message with these videos. Perhaps one of an overly romanticized vision of their jihad meant to spread fear and recruit young men who dream of being heroes. Whatever the goal behind these propaganda videos is, the quality of these videos is much better than could usually be expected from a rag-tag extremist group. In fact, when it comes to media propaganda, ISIS is ahead of the game. The high quality, drama, and allure of their videos can be attributed to the Al Ayat Media Center, which is a branch of ISIS dedicated to media propaganda. Just like a Hollywood movie production company, Al Ayat puts together videos to incite emotion in both the men they want to recruit, and the Western enemies they despise.

In seeking to inspire other radical Muslims around the world to join their cause, ISIS has taken to visual media. Surely, the West never thought that a medium that was created in a benign fashion would be used as a recruiting tool with the ultimate goal of countless deaths and an Islamic caliphate. Seeking to appeal to young men specifically, the videos have a strong sense of masculinity in them, almost making it seem as if once they join, they’ll be like the hero in a video game or movie. ISIS is even using Western or, more specifically, Hollywood presentation and style in their propaganda videos to help them recruit people to ultimately wage war on the West. The irony of their slick propaganda is that it promotes a sense of self-actualization and individual significance more in line with their sworn enemy’s philosophy than with an Islamic concept of ummah, or community. It never seemed likely at the outset of the War on Terror that a decade later, radicals would be using media in such a Western way to spread their message of fear and death. ISIS sees the power of video and the power of presentation and they are taking full advantage of both to help carry them towards their vision of how the Middle East should be governed.

A Western Audience:

Pro-ISIS propaganda spreading to the West

While ISIS’ recruiting strategies were initially confined to their immediate area, they have now widened their influence globally. Through savvy social media usage, they have successfully recruited thousands of Europeans and Americans to join their jihad. With the advent of heavy social media usage, ISIS has completely changed the landscape of western recruitment and the Jihadi presence on social media. Videos released by ISIS bear similarities to an entertainment show in the specific camera angles and dialogues. They also have created a media conglomerate in which they release documentaries, news reports, and a magazine called Dabiq. They primarily release all their information in a multitude of languages ranging from Arabic to English to French. This is done in order to reach a larger audience and consequently draw in a bigger group of recruits. Because of the amount of outreach done through technology and social media, ISIS has been successful in the recruitment of youths and recent converts from all over the world.

The implications of ISIS’s targeting of young Muslims in countries like the United Kingdom and the United States are alarming. No longer is the reach of radical Islamism restricted to the existing pool of fighters left over from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Soviet-Afghan war; now it extends to Muslims who grew up in secular states that have never been near a warzone, let alone held a weapon. Their savvy use of social media contrasts with the archaic methods of Al-Qaeda; Twitter and Tumblr have replaced fuzzy camcorder recordings of Osama Bin Laden’s monologues. ISIS realizes that sermons are not enough to attract the next generation of jihadis. Instead, ISIS has released a slick media package designed to legitimize ISIS as a state rather than an insurgent group by showing off it’s monopoly on violence within western Iraq and north-eastern Syria. This is a case of success breeding more success: ISIS presents itself as the only serious option for fighters looking to be on the winning side, making more moderate groups like Al-Nusra look weak in comparison. If allowed to spread their propaganda unchecked, ISIS will soon become the default destination for young, disaffected Muslim fighters regardless of how secular or Westernized their backgrounds are.

Kidnappings & Extortion:

Throughout this year, ISIS has shocked the world with its public executions and rampant kidnappings. The most infamous example this year was the video of the beheading of US journalist James Foley; though experts say it was most likely staged, its graphic intensity played up and an UK born english-speaking jihadist brought in to target the video specifically at Western states. Although there were multiple publicized executions, the case of James Foley was the first and arguably most visceral of them all considering its high shock value. 

Photo from James Foley execution

While it’s no mystery that various terrorist organizations participate in the hostage black market, ISIS appears to be functioning independently of the underground trading society. Many sources, including Peter Bouckaert of the Human Rights Watch, have observed that for the time being, “almost all of the foreign hostages held by IS were kidnapped directly by them”, indicating their autonomy from their counterparts. While it’s easy to be distracted by the sheer evil of ISIS’s tactics, it’s incredibly important to recognize that their self-reliance implies that a method exists to the madness. Although ISIS is independently kidnapping their hostages, they’re still actively participating in the black market. They sell nationals back to the highest bidder; in some cases, back to their own countries. For example, “ISIS itself released two Spanish journalists in 2013 in response to random demands being met, whilst a Scandinavian company reportedly paid $70,000 for the return of an employee”. ISIS makes a large portion of its funding from buying and selling hostages, which makes them even more dangerous to the world because they hold the negotiation power. If the ransom demands aren’t met, ISIS has already proven their ruthlessness and willingness to publicly execute high profile hostages, making it difficult for countries and companies to refuse their financial ransom proposal.

ISIS’ practice of ruthlessness towards Western captives, coupled with the resultant (and extraordinary) financial success they have garnered by collecting ransom from various nations, families, and middlemen, has helped ISIS develop financial power and international visibility. But, for these same reasons, ISIS’ treatment of Western captives has put the captives’ governments in politically, and ethnically, complex situations. Since 2008, it is estimated that al-Qaeda has garnered about $125 million in ransom money- the vast chunk being received by al Qaeda from European countries. The “European policy” on citizen captivity has proven to be easily-exploitable by Islamic extremist groups like al Qaeda/ISIS, but also reveals the weaknesses and exploitability of the “American policy” on citizen captivity and the unequivocal, unapologetic refusal to pay enemy ransom demands- even going to the extent of “...threat(ening) to prosecute family members who make separate attempts to secure the hostage's release.” While ISIS has been able to make huge fiscal gains off European captives, American captives represent a different type of gain for ISIS. Former American captive of al Qaeda David Rhode explains that American government’s refusal to pay enemy ransoms has not resulted in any decreased interest in American citizens abroad- but has rather been exploited in and of itself as a tool for recruitment and publicity. Rhode says that European-American captive policy inconsistencies and polarities have not resulted in ISIS targeting citizens of European countries more than citizens of American countries, but has rather resulted in extremist groups targeting “... any foreigners they can get and use the Europeans for ransom and the Americans for publicity.”

Works Cited:

Caulfield, P. (2014, August 25). James Foley's beheading may have been staged: Expert . Retrieved November 20, 2014, from http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/james-foley-killed-off-camera-expert-article-1.1915845

Godolphin, S. (2014, September 24). The Rationale of Kidnapping and Hostage Execution: What Drives ISIS Kidnappers? Retrieved from http://globalpoliticalinsight.com/2014/09/24/the-rationale-of-kidnapping-and-hostage-execution-what-drives-isis-kidnappers/

Knefel, J. (2014, October 6). How ISIS Gets Its Hostages. Retrieved from http://www.vocativ.com/usa/nat-sec/isis-hostages/

McCoy, T. (2014, June 17). How ISIS and other jihadists persuaded thousands of Westerners to fight their war of extremism. Retrieved November 24, 2014, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/06/17/how-isis-persuaded-thousands-of-westerners-to-fight-its-war-of-extremism/

News Corp Australia. (2014, October 9). How does ISIS get its hostages? Retrieved from http://www.news.com.au/world/how-does-isis-get-its-hostages/story-fndir2ev-1227085068569

Peter Bouckaert: Human Rights Watch. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.hrw.org/bios/peter-bouckaert

Rose, S. (2014, October 7). The Isis propaganda war: A hi-tech media jihad. Retrieved November 21, 2014, from http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/07/isis-media-machine-propaganda-war

Schiavenza, M. (2014, November 16). ISIS Has Killed Another American Aid Worker. Retrieved November 23, 2014, from http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/should-the-united-states-pay-ransoms-to-terrorists/382803/

Vinograd, C. (2014, September 17). ISIS Propaganda Video 'Flames of War' Shows Attacks on U.S. Troops - NBC News. Retrieved November 24, 2014, from http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-propaganda-video-flames-war-shows-attacks-u-s-troops-n205096

Yan, H., Castillo, M., Shoichet, C., Koran, L., & Labott, E. (1970, January 1). Why is ISIS so successful at luring Westerners? Retrieved November 22, 2014, from http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/07/world/isis-western-draw/